although this is from another game based on Risk, where thousands of dice rolls happen every hour, i think it fits this random vs bug situation well.
"Q: Something still doesn't feel right. Why do I keep seeing patterns in the rolls?
A: The answer to this question has more to do with psychology than math. Humans have certain innate characteristics that make it extremely difficult for us to deal with randomness. We hate randomness. We hate it so much that our minds often trick us into seeing patterns where patterns don't exist and into believing that random events aren't random. We see shapes in clouds. We see faces in rock formations. When disaster strikes, we ask "why" and suspect that "something else" must be at work. The simple reality is that some things just can't be predicted. Random chance, combined with a mind always striving to see patterns can create some fascinating illusions.
Still not convinced your mind is playing tricks on you? Do some math to prove it. When rolling five dice, there are 7776 possible outcomes. How many of those would look like some sort error or pattern in the random output? All of the same number would look like a pattern. That's 6 possible outcomes right there. How about triples versus doubles, like 1,1,1,6,6 or 2,2,2,5,5? That's 25 more. How about sequential values, like 1,2,3,4,5 or 5,4,3,2,1? Once we add up all the possible outcomes that could look like something more than just random combinations of numbers, we see that there are actually quite a few. With 500-600 rolls per game, and most people playing several simultaneous games, you should see patterns all the time. " |
probably sticks in peoples´ minds more when they are about to level.
